Messages in this thread | | | From | Bear Giles <> | Subject | Re: time_t size: The year 2038 bug? | Date | Wed, 5 Jan 2000 19:36:24 -0700 (MST) |
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> So, I'm simply saying that, while looking into my crystal ball, the vast > majority of people in 2038 will be running 64-bit machines and that OS > support for 32-bit machines will hold the similar facination that support > for 16-bit machines does today.
Yeah, and look where those 16-bit (and 8-bit!) machines are being used, running 30-year-old software that in dead languages and lost source code: Radar, both aviation and meteorology. Air traffic control systems. Medical systems. Power systems. Military systems.
In other words, critical systems where if something breaks you *don't* run out to OfficeMax to buy the most recent hardware, you build an exact copy of your hardware with expensive chips from a surplus dealer who gets his stock from auctions of other decommissioned equipment. That means that "dead" hardware lasts *far* longer than you would expect!
I agree that 38 years sounds like a long time, but I'm willing to put up a check with a trusted third party (ACM?) that code written for the US Air Traffic Control System upgrade that was supposed to replace those '60s and '70s vintage systems still in use today (and crashing with disturbing regularity) will still be operational in at least one control center in 2038. Last I heard that modernization effort is still underway, but we should be able to start the clock rolling by 2005 giving you over 30 years to win the bet.
P.S., I'm not worried about ATC computers. I'm worried about a computer in *my* hospital room, although I should still be a spry 77 and I'm *far* more worried that it will be running NT. :-)
-- Bear Giles bgiles@coyotesong.com
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